First, the fact that changes the whole question
The brutal version of this tax — 4% to 6.5% of DOF value for condos and co-ops over $1M — is Phase 1, and it lasts exactly two fiscal years: 2026–27 and 2027–28. From July 1, 2028, Phase 2 re-tests every property against a single $5 million threshold on a comparable-sales basis — real-world value, not today's discounted DOF figures. A condo or co-op genuinely worth less than $5M exits the tax entirely at that point, through the law's 2031 sunset. So the decision is rarely "sell or pay forever." It is "sell, or cover a two-year bridge."
If it's a house: stop — you may owe nothing at all
1–3 family houses have their own schedule with a $5M threshold from day one. A house under $5M of DOF market value owes $0 in Phase 1 and $0 in Phase 2. Selling a sub-$5M house "because of the pied-à-terre tax" means paying six figures of transaction costs to escape a tax that never touched you. Check the number before doing anything: free DOF lookup.
The bridge cost: what staying actually runs
For a liable condo or co-op, the bridge is the Phase-1 surcharge paid twice (or avoided — see below). Typical shapes, using the flat schedule on DOF value:
| DOF market value | Annual (4%–5.25%) | Full two-year bridge |
|---|---|---|
| $1.2M | $48,000 | $96,000 |
| $1.6M | $64,000 | $128,000 |
| $2.5M | $100,000 | $200,000 |
| $3.5M | $183,750 | $367,500 |
And the bridge has an escape hatch selling doesn't: an arm's-length lease of 12+ months to a tenant who makes it their primary residence exempts the unit for that year — rent covers the carry, the exemption erases the surcharge, and you take the home back for a tax-free Phase 2. Our rent-through-Phase-1 analysis runs that play in detail; roughly 11,972 of the 17,371 liable condos and co-ops sit in the $1.0–1.6M DOF band that plausibly exits at Phase 2.
The selling cost: what leaving actually runs
Take a condo worth $4M on the open market (DOF value ~$1.4M — liable). Selling it costs, in round numbers:
| Cost of selling at $4M | Amount |
|---|---|
| Broker commission (5%–6%) | $200,000 – $240,000 |
| NYS transfer tax (0.65% at $3M+) | $26,000 |
| NYC transfer tax (1.425%) | $57,000 |
| Legal, flip taxes (co-ops), misc. | $10,000 – $50,000+ |
| Cash cost of the exit | ≈ $290,000 – $370,000 |
| Foreign sellers: FIRPTA federal withholding (up to 15% of GROSS price) | ~$600,000 withheld at closing — recoverable, but locked up for months |
| Downsizing? Mansion tax on the replacement ($1M+) | 1%–1.5% of the new purchase |
Compare: the same unit's full two-year bridge is about $112,000 paid outright — or near zero leased. The exit costs two to three times the thing it's escaping, converts a recoverable annual decision into a permanent one, and for non-US sellers ties up hundreds of thousands in withholding while the refund processes. Selling makes sense when you wanted out anyway — the tax is a tiebreaker, not a reason.
When selling IS the right answer
Honesty cuts both ways. Selling deserves real consideration when: the property's true value is clearly above $5M (Phase 2 keeps it in the tax, at 0.8%–1.3% of full market value, indefinitely to the 2031 sunset and beyond if extended); you can't or won't lease it and the carry genuinely strains you; you were already planning an exit and today's market gives you your price; or the building itself has issues the tax merely spotlights. And the $4.5M–$5.5M band is the honest coin-flip — DOF hasn't written the Phase-2 valuation methodology, so nobody can promise which side of the line those units land on. Our keep-rent-or-sell model puts real numbers on all three doors.
The foreign-owner wrinkle, specifically
Non-US owners feel the extra weight on both sides: staying means the compliance traps of managing exemptions from abroad; selling means FIRPTA withholding, cross-border tax filings, and the practical impossibility of "just moving in" to claim primary residence without triggering US tax-residency consequences. Which is exactly why the 12-month lease is the foreign owner's default play — it needs no US presence, no certification risk, and no exit costs. Bridge with a tenant, hold the asset, and let July 2028 do the rest.
Run your two numbers before deciding anything
This whole decision turns on two figures: your unit's DOF market value (sets the bridge cost) and its real-world value (sets the Phase-2 outcome). We'll pull the first from the official roll and give you a broker's honest read on the second — free, with a written report: check your address.
Educational, not tax advice. Transaction-cost figures are typical NYC ranges; FIRPTA withholding is a federal requirement on dispositions by foreign persons with exceptions and reduced-withholding procedures a tax advisor can pursue. Phase-2 statements reflect the statute; DOF's Phase-2 valuation methodology remains unpublished. Cross-border owners should coordinate with counsel who can see their worldwide position.